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Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on the Environment of Tehran

Abstract The intensification of climate change and, consequently, global warming will cause serious damage to the urban environment. Undoubtedly, many of the world’s cities continue their living and go further than their ecological potential. However, any kind of negative change caused by variation in climate can cause irreparable damage to urban ecosystems.
As one of the metropolises of the world, Tehran is constantly facing increasing population growth and urban construction, the use of unrealized energy sources, occurrence of various environmental pollution, and consequently increased greenhouse gas emission and vulnerability to climate change. The aim of the current study is analysis of the changing trend of climate parameters of Tehran and identification of related effects on the environment of this city. Previous studies have indicated that the change of degree and amount of rain have been increased between the years 1982 to 2011. This report firstly describes the concept of climate and its changes. Then, by collecting urban environment indicators, the vulnerable environment parameters as a result of climate change and rain were identified. To prioritize the risks that are resulted from climate change, the analysis of risk related to climate change of Tehran was carried out. With regard to the risk, findings indicated it is probable that “increase in demand for cooling energy in the summer”, “decrease in efficiency of production equipment and energy use”, “floodwater occurrence”, and “evaporation in aquiferous areas” are among the most important risks in relation to increase in temperature and rain in the metropolis of Tehran. Keywords: climate parameters, change in climate, urban environment, environment effects Introduction The change in climate is a phenomenon that occur on a timescale of thousands years. However in comparison with climate change of two million years ago, the one that has occurred in recent years is much more severe because the dramatic expansion of urbanization and urban development in terms of population, space and the emergence of metropolitan areas have caused various urban textures and complex environmental problems, including climate change. Despite recent concerns in terms of the environment, the devastating human effects have not decreased. Furthermore, severe issues such as extreme air pollution, thickness of ozone layer, greenhouse phenomenon, climate change and numerous effects of these phenomena have been exacerbated. According to the studies, the long-term average (1982-2011) of Tehran’s daily temperature have shown increasing trend of ./9 degree Celsius and 34/8 millimeter of rain in the thirty years which indicated hotter climate of this city and occurrence of more rain (Navazi et al., 2015). With respect to increasing trend of temperature and raining in Tehran and by studying the predicted changes in climate parameters in this city which show increasing trend in the next ten years, identifying the effects of climate change on Tehran’s environment to estimate the risk of effects is of outmost important. In this study, by studying the thirty-year changing trend of climate parameters in the city of Tehran and analyzing its future condition, the effects of changes on the environment of Tehran were identified. Statement of the problem Climate is an important element of our environment. While it is affected by many human activities, it also affects them. In recent years, the temperature of the earth has changed. The cities should focus on the issue of climate change. Undoubtedly, many cities of the country are living beyond their ecological potential. However, any kind of negative change caused by climate change can cause irreparable damage to urban ecosystems. Cities often provide their resources beyond urban areas. Population increase and urbanization development and consequently the increasing need of humans to energy and use of various fossil fuels have increased the emission of greenhouse gases in atmosphere. The effects of greenhouse gases and emergence of greenhouse phenomenon have caused changes in the climate. The population of Tehran has grown from approximately 106000 in 1883 to 500000 in 1937. Between the years 1941- 2006, it has grown from 700000 to more than 11 times more, i.e. 7/8 million. In this regard, between the years 1966 to 1986, the population growth has increased more rapidly in comparison to other periods. According to 2011 census, Tehran was the most populated city of the country (Statistical Center of Iran, 2011). In addition, the long-term average (1982-2011) analysis of Tehran’s daily temperature have shown increasing trend which indicated hotter climate of this city. With respect to population growth and hotter temperature of this city, analysis of the effect of climate change and reducing negative effects seems very vital. Significance of the study Population increase and urbanization development and consequently the increasing need of humans to energy and use of various fossil fuels have increased the emission of greenhouse gases in atmosphere and occurrence of climate change phenomenon. Serious vulnerability against climate change, increasing problems of using energy and environment consequences as a result of constant use of fossil fuels have caused attention to climate change issues at the global level. Accordingly, the goal of United Nation Convention regarding climate changes which was enacted in 1992 was as follows: Achieving stability in greenhouse gas density in the atmosphere at the level that prevents the dangerous interference of human beings’ activities in water and air system. This level should be achieved when the ecosystems can naturally cope with climate change. It should also be assured that food production is not threatened and economic development can be continued in sustainable manner.
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